GUESS HU'S COMING TO DINNER – AT 8:41 A.M. ET:  China's big guy is heading to Washington this week.

Americans tend to ignore the rise of China, while buying its products every day.  We haven't had a direct military confrontation with the Chinese since the Korean War, some 60 years ago.   And thus, the huge Chinese military buildup, while reported in the media, doesn't strike the average American with much impact.

But China is a complex mechanism, as The New York Times points out, with different power centers jockeying for influence:

Mr. Hu has repeatedly asserted China’s disinclination to challenge American power; his designated foreign policy coordinator, State Councilor Dai Bingguo, recently wrote an article reaffirming Mr. Deng’s warning, made back when China’s modernization was beginning, that the country should bide its time before seeking a global role.

On Friday, the article was cited by Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, Thomas E. Donilon, who characterized it as “a definitive statement at this point of the leadership’s approach to foreign policy generally and the United States specifically.”

But even Mr. Donilon acknowledged debates “particularly in the blogosphere and in newspapers in China” that urge a far faster, more assertive rise, and that trumpet American decline. He said with some understatement that “following that debate is a very important thing to do.”

COMMENT:  My friend, China expert Gordon Chang, also warns that China may face substantial internal turmoil and chaos in coming years.  The country, with the world's largest population, has sections that are unhappy and largely ungovernable. 

We must, of course, watch the rise of China's economic and military power carefully, but let's not make the Chinese ten feet tall.  We won the Cold War against the Russians, and Japan isn't the economic monster it once seemed.  China will grow, but can easily stumble badly.

January 17, 2011